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(P.S. For a clue on who I thinks gonna win, look at my thread 'a pattern?').
uksgamer2002
1. PS1 was the largest selling console of all time (I mean *real* consoles, not handhelds... different market) at around 80 million units worldwide in 6 years.
2. PS2 is already a quarter of the way to that total after just one year; 18 months if you account for the earlier Japanese release.
3. The Xbox demo pods, containing final hardware, are crashing all over the place in the US. Out of 5 pods in a 10-mile radius, only 2 work. Not a good advert. PS2 had a small percentage (around 5%) of defective units, which some hoped would lead to its downfall. It didn't, though, and this may not affect Xbox. However after all of Microsoft's bragging about how much better their machine is, it is a significant humiliation. More importantly, those on these forums who have had the opportunity to play on the machine have seemingly been underwhelmed.
4. Apparently (and I stress that this is only from an interview with a Sony rep, although the claim was not refuted by the independent site on which it appeared), Nintendo have sold less than a third of the Gamecube's that they expected to at its Japanese launch. People can mention earthquakes as much as they want, but I don't believe it had a significant impact on sales.
At the end of the day, the market is big enough to support all three systems successfully. In fact, it could easily have supported 4, had Sega not had such a disastrous time with the Saturn and the Dreamcast.
*If* you have to put a ranking on the systems, purely in terms of sales figures, then currently, based on evidence rather than opinion, it would surely have to be:
1. PS2 2. Xbox 3. Gamecube
The reasons?
PS2 already has 20-million + sales, and after the recent price cut, sales have increased dramatically. Sony have a huge and loyal following, and already a significant chunk of the market.
Xbox is an unknown quantity. It may sell well, but will it sell well enough to overhaul PS2? It's not impossible, but it's unlikely. Microsoft are reportedly spending $500 million on advertising, but the biggest advert is playing the machine. The pods are reportedly crashing even on menu screens, not just in games... and that *could* undermine all of the media advertising.
Gamecube would be 3rd simply because it isn't selling in the numbers Nintendo predicted... *at the moment*. Of course, they've probably sold more at this moment in time than Xbox has. All of this may change when the machine is released in the US and Europe, though. And for all the money they make through the Gameboy, Nintendo don't advertise anywhere near enough, and so only those already into games no of what's to come. If Nintendo are to compete with Sony and Microsoft, they need to push their product to those who otherwise would have no interest in it.
People need to be convinced that they want the product. The problem Microsoft and Nintendo have is that Sony have already convinced a lot of people that they needed PS1, and now PS2. And so, "If I already a PS2, why do I need an Xbox/Gamecube?" That is what they need to overcome.
Which of course 'boobies' did.
I'd like to add that Nintendo made an awful lot of boobies in the past, which is why the analysts are plumping (I use that term cautiously as I don't want to upset any fat people) for the PS2.