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The answer, my friends, is none and all.
You see, this time it will be different. This time there is so much diversity that all 3 main consoles can happily share the market. The Xbox 360 and PS3 will go head to head, that's true. Having a head start and a good word has worked for Microsoft (and they're working on Japan, though it's a tough one to break). The PS3 will be bought all over the world but only by those who feel that they can afford to fork out. This will level the playing field, the price of the PS3 will turn some to the 360 and the Sony branding will ensure that the PS3 still gets a large share. It should, i believe, make the situation even.
So, to the third player, the one that ended in a so-called third place in the last generation, Nintendo. Well, they've done their research. They tried out the market with the DS and saw that there was an untapped area. The non-gamer. They've also priced their console so it can be thought of as a second option for those wanting 2 consoles and most importantly, they've made it different. Not just different to the other two consoles, but different to anything else, ever. And with this the third share of the market will be divided.
As for me? I have the 360. I've studied the PS3 and considered it not worth the money for me, given the games I enjoy are all coming out on the 360, bar perhaps Gran Turismo. Then I'll get a Wii, because I love Nintendo and its different approach.
Others may prefer the PS3, want blu-ray or Metal Gear Solid and other Sony specific games, or just want the Wii. Either way, this time the field is really level...
>
> PS3 has the technical capabilities of slightly better graphics
> to the 360, but doesn't seem to be using it on any of their
> launch games.
However, I was reading the old Xbox launch mag and they say that various chips are 'futureproof' in that their makers allow them to run enhanced graphics routines created by the chip makers themselves.
Also, as Bonus mentioned a while back, the 360 is capable of doing various graphical things that have recently been developed for the PC that the PS3 is unable to do.
Add to that the fact that MS have the supposedly friendly XNA tools setup for developers and the chances of the 360 suddenly becoming 'outdated' seem very remote (hoho) indeed.
>
> It's not much of a step up from the original Xbox, nor will the
> visuals be as good as the PS3's. It doesn't have anything new or
> fresh to offer like the Wii either. It's not outdated at the
> moment, but Sony's and Nintendo's respective machines could make
> it appear so when they hit the market.
'could' but won't. Sony's machine isn't that much of a leap over 360 and it's pricing could well be prohibitive and Nintendo's machine seems to be aiming for a different market than the 360 and MS seem to think the two can co-exist (they encouraged people to buy a Wii aswell as a 360 at E3 I believe).
As for it not being much of a step-up from Xbox, well graphics-wise it is and everything else has been refined and improved with gamers being able to chop and choose bits and pieces for their console and more things in the works such as the camera/vision.
Probably the biggest change I've noticed so far next-gen gameplay-wise has been the enabling of 16 player co-op over Live which should take online gaming in a very nice direction indeed.
> It's not much of a step up from the original Xbox, nor will the
> visuals be as good as the PS3's. It doesn't have anything new or
> fresh to offer like the Wii either.
Ok this has been bugging me for a while now, exactly how is the Wii new and fresh? A controller you can swing around and what not? Ermmm that's been done before (though yes on a basic level) only now Nintendo are sticking it onto their home console format. It just saves you having to go down the arcade and firing the guns or swinging the swords they have there.
Pah
> The PS3, imagine it, your out with your gaming
> "buddies", on November 17th, and you tell them that
> you got a PS3. You will be like a God to them. Simply because of
> the price tag, PS3 is becoming highly anticipated. It was the
> same for the PS2, you told anyone you had one when it was first
> released, and you were "the man". However, after the
> euphoria has worn off, the PS3 will hit the shelves, and stay
> there. It won't be until the first price cuts will it really
> pick up.
It could equally look bad for Sony. Either you'd be there with your PS3 with everyone around you playing and talking about their 360's or they'd just laugh when you'd told them how much you'd paid for a games console...
Alternatively, loads of older people with disposable incomes will buy it. However, I don't know any.
PS3 has the technical capabilities of slightly better graphics to the 360, but doesn't seem to be using it on any of their launch games.
> As for the 360 seeming dated, how do you mean? The graphics are
> near enough to a PS3 to make no difference (especially at a lower
> price point) and they have the licences/support of the third
> parties.
It's not much of a step up from the original Xbox, nor will the visuals be as good as the PS3's. It doesn't have anything new or fresh to offer like the Wii either. It's not outdated at the moment, but Sony's and Nintendo's respective machines could make it appear so when they hit the market.
As for the 360 seeming dated, how do you mean? The graphics are near enough to a PS3 to make no difference (especially at a lower price point) and they have the licences/support of the third parties.
How do you class a winner? Well, it's not as simple as market share. The company has to make a profit at the end of the day (which means selling more games, not consoles and therefore having more users), but how much of a loss are each of the companies selling at just with their console?
If the 360 or Wii stumbles then both MS and Nintendo have enough funds to take the hit and move on. Sony on the otherhand are banking an awful lot on the PS3.
With the cheaper 360 offering 'near PS3' graphics and multiformat developers not taking the time to make use of the extra power found in the PS3 it'll probably come down to exclusives. But then again I'm not someone who's into buying purely for 'brands'.
The Wii will do well due to it's core audience and will probably go on from there. It's also going to be cheap enough to be bought on impulse around the festive period, it's the sort of thing you can imagine people buying as the 'new' christmas boardgame replacement (Mario Party# 164 bundled with it obviously).
In the case of pricing: when you see that people are quite happy to spend hundreds of pounds on some silly robotic dog from Japan you can see how the Wii could appeal and, indeed, the PS3: either as a 'must have' or as something that simply won't be used 3 months later (or both). At the Wii's expected price a lot of people will be willing to take the chance and as for 'oh it's just like eye toy' the Wii controller is far more integrated and capable of allowing much deeper gaming experiences than the simple setup of the eye-toy.
Now if Blu-ray fails to take off and is rejected then the simple DVD capabilities of the Wii and 360 look far more appealing than a console supporting an ignored format. Sure the movie companies will push it but if the public refuse to accept it then that's that - the Video CD allover again.
There are a lot of variables, but only Sony risk gambling more than they can afford in this upcoming 'war' of the consoles.
I also believe that the 360 will very soon become out-dated, but this may mean that Microsoft will cut the price dramatically, giving it the edge to battle with the Wii. If the Wii does succed well, it is very unlikly that Nintendo will drop the price for some time.
The PS3, imagine it, your out with your gaming "buddies", on November 17th, and you tell them that you got a PS3. You will be like a God to them. Simply because of the price tag, PS3 is becoming highly anticipated. It was the same for the PS2, you told anyone you had one when it was first released, and you were "the man". However, after the euphoria has worn off, the PS3 will hit the shelves, and stay there. It won't be until the first price cuts will it really pick up.
The Wii is the underdog, and therefore, everyones favourite. Ludicrous if you ask me, as the only thing that is innovative on it is the controller. So what? It's a nice idea, and will defiantly attract the child gamer and people looking for something different, but that's it. I very much doubt it will attract the "non-gamer" as it is just too different; would you get a PS2 and EyeToy, just for that? Exactly.
I do think this will be a more level console war, but not completly even.
The winner will probably be decided by:
a) The Wii takes off and a brand new "Revolution" in gaming takes place.
b) The 360 stays as the dominant 'Next-Gen' console, and battles off the PS3 due to the pricing.
c) The PS3 grabs gamers buy showing them the "promised" superior graphics and gameplay. And does what the stero-typical 'Next-Gen' is supposed to do.