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The way things stand at the moment the only real exclusive will be Gran Turismo.
The Saturn was killed off partly due to Sony exclusives (and the fact it was badly supported)
The DC was killed off in the same way.
A large quantity of people bought the PS2 because of GTA, GT3 and MGS.
Now all but GT will be cross platform then they haven't much of a strangle hold on exclusives.
On the other hand the XBOX has loads of exclusives, some because the developers cant produce a quality product on the other 2 systems and the others because of Microsofts money.
This is what will make the XBOX a force to be reckoned with.
But then, that's never going to happen. Making a console compatible with more than one previous generation would be too costly. It's great that PS2 plays PSone games, but I'm sure it's more of a coincidental design feature than through any deliberate design.
Including the PSone's CPU as PS2's I/O controller was a coup, and Sony would have been daft not to include backwards-compatibility.
Similar, in a way, to the people (mostly Gamecube owners/die-hard Ninty fanboys) are *still* moaning about "I don't want to watch DVDs on my games console". Could you imagine the uproar if Sony had included a DVD drive, but omitted any DVD playback functionality? What you'd have heard then would have been, "Ha! Sony screwed you! They put in a DVD drive but won't let you play DVDs!" and such.
But I digress.
It's highly unlikely, I think, that the next PlayStation 3 (for we all assume that Sony will want to keep the name as it's served them so well) will feature any backwards-compatibility. In fact, I think SOny have already confirmed as much.
Either way, though, I don't expect to see it before mid-2005 at the very, very earliest.
I also predict a turn-around of the current generation's situation. Currently, PS2 was around first (Dreamcast excluded) and the others still can't match it in terms of sales. However, I think that Microsoft will have Xbox2 out first (probably running on a P4 and half as big again! ;-p), but people will be waiting for PS3.
Theres also loads of PS2's being sold and not to mention the christmas rush! I hope they give it a few years, especially if they want me forking out another £300 - £500 on a brand new console...