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"Another theory..."

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Fri 29/08/03 at 20:07
Regular
Posts: 8,220
The best conspiracy theories draw as many different threads together as possible, to weave some elaborate, incredible, yet compelling tapestry of possible truths.

This is not such a theory. But let me run it by you:

Kelly's watching the government's handling of the whole Iraq thing, he comes to the conclusion that the way the government have, since the start of the war, begun implying that there was a *direct* threat of Irq using their WMDs against the UK, is misdirecting the public, because there's no reliable evidence to back up this change in position (from claiming the weapons could get into terrorist hands).

He speaks with people, including Gilligan. Somewhere along the line Kelly's position gets oversimplified as: 'the government are misleading the public, with the 45 minutes claim', which then is taken to mean the 45 minute thing is false.

And here we are, one big misunderstanding or something.


As I understand it, there's enough vagueness in the relevant events that it could have happened like this. Yes?
Fri 29/08/03 at 20:07
Regular
Posts: 8,220
The best conspiracy theories draw as many different threads together as possible, to weave some elaborate, incredible, yet compelling tapestry of possible truths.

This is not such a theory. But let me run it by you:

Kelly's watching the government's handling of the whole Iraq thing, he comes to the conclusion that the way the government have, since the start of the war, begun implying that there was a *direct* threat of Irq using their WMDs against the UK, is misdirecting the public, because there's no reliable evidence to back up this change in position (from claiming the weapons could get into terrorist hands).

He speaks with people, including Gilligan. Somewhere along the line Kelly's position gets oversimplified as: 'the government are misleading the public, with the 45 minutes claim', which then is taken to mean the 45 minute thing is false.

And here we are, one big misunderstanding or something.


As I understand it, there's enough vagueness in the relevant events that it could have happened like this. Yes?
Fri 29/08/03 at 20:25
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"118 118"
Posts: 1,126
Yep, from what I understand you're spot on there.
Fri 29/08/03 at 20:52
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"twothousandandtits"
Posts: 11,024
I think you could be right there.
Fri 29/08/03 at 20:55
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agrees because i wanna look clever!
Fri 29/08/03 at 21:03
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But as I understood it, at no time did Blair say the weapons Iraq had would be used against the UK directly.

Yes, there was a threat to forces in countries around Iraq like Kuwait, yes, the theoretical range of one missile could be used to hit troops in Cyprus, and yes there was evidence Iraq was researching longer ranged missiles - the Al Samoud already exceeded the range set down by UN Sanctions - though many anti war campaigners conveniently forget that.

Sure, the media may have implied it, but the threat to the UK was definied as Iraq potentially passing the WMD to terrorists which would then use it, and at this moment we have no way of knowing the full story of this war, and what happened.

Can we, 100%, say the WMD was not partially destroyed but also partially dismantled and taken elsewhere. Satellite surveillance is not fool proof, and all it takes is for someone to have given Iraq the timings at which a snapshot/video of an area is taken. From what we know, the 9/11 attacks were planned up to 7 years before they took place, and right now we cannot find any WMD in Iraq.

Even Dr Kelly believed Iraq had some form of WMD, coalition forces have found masses of decontamination gear, bio suits etc that Saddam issued to his forces. We know, from the vast amounts of cash recovered from Iraq, that Saddam would only buy what was necessary for his troops. Why equip all of them, right down to the lowliest unit, with the gear ? Open source material clealry says that the forces arrayed against Saddam would not use the weapons requiring that protection unless they were first used against them.

I still believe the 20-45 minutes claim was true, that Iraq had WMD, and that we need to find it, because it existed, and lack of evidence does not always mean there is none.
Fri 29/08/03 at 22:25
Regular
Posts: 8,220
Belldandy wrote:
> - the Al Samoud already exceeded the range set
> down by UN Sanctions - though many anti war campaigners conveniently
> forget that.

I'm not sure it was that cut and dry, I remember hearing they could only exceed the range when not fitted with a warhead. If memory serves.
Though I think that's a little off this particular point.


> But as I understood it, at no time did Blair say the weapons Iraq had
> would be used against the UK directly.
....
> Sure, the media may have implied it,


Hmm. Perhaps not, but at best he allowed people to believe it.

But beyond this, I believe the 45 minute claim is evidence of the government themselves implying a direct threat. Why give so much prominance to the time it would take Iraq to launch WMDs if they expected people to believe the only threat was from *other* people using the weapons?

Or to phrase it differently:
The reason for going to war was because terrorists may attack us with Saddam's WMDs.
If the government were maintaining this position, highlight how easily Iraq could attack us, when they admitted it would never happen?

We went to war because of the threat to US.
The government highlight how quickly Iraq could launch an attack.
The message was clear: "Look how quickly Saddam can use his weapons to kill US."

Maybe not an express decleration. After all, it was a *gradual* curbing of peoples' beliefs to make them consider Iraq a direct threat. But to me, the intent is clear.
Fri 29/08/03 at 22:25
Regular
Posts: 8,220
Belldandy wrote:
> - the Al Samoud already exceeded the range set
> down by UN Sanctions - though many anti war campaigners conveniently
> forget that.

I'm not sure it was that cut and dry, I remember hearing they could only exceed the range when not fitted with a warhead. If memory serves.
Though I think that's a little off this particular point.


> But as I understood it, at no time did Blair say the weapons Iraq had
> would be used against the UK directly.
....
> Sure, the media may have implied it,


Hmm. Perhaps not, but at best he allowed people to believe it.

But beyond this, I believe the 45 minute claim is evidence of the government themselves implying a direct threat. Why give so much prominance to the time it would take Iraq to launch WMDs if they expected people to believe the only threat was from *other* people using the weapons?

Or to phrase it differently:
The reason for going to war was because terrorists may attack us with Saddam's WMDs.
If the government were maintaining this position, highlight how easily Iraq could attack us, when they admitted it would never happen?

We went to war because of the threat to US.
The government highlight how quickly Iraq could launch an attack.
The message was clear: "Look how quickly Saddam can use his weapons to kill US."

Maybe not an express decleration. After all, it was a *gradual* curbing of peoples' beliefs to make them consider Iraq a direct threat. But to me, the intent is clear.
Fri 29/08/03 at 22:32
Regular
Posts: 8,220
Sorry for the double post
Fri 29/08/03 at 22:35
Regular
"Puerile Shagging"
Posts: 15,009
Just trying to boost your word count, aren't ya ;)
Fri 29/08/03 at 23:13
Regular
"Best Price @ GAME :"
Posts: 3,812
Don't really buy this "he allowed people to believe it" idea. He didn't say it, the government cannot deny everything that people dream up, and it's not their fault if people are stupid enough to come up with stuff. We don't see the US Government repeatedly denying the existence of UFO's, nor denying the Express's ludicrous Asylum Seeker related claims, because to even deny them is to give them credence.

Iraq was a threat. Was Afghanistan a threat on September 10th ? I don't doubt that well over 1/2 the public would have had difficulty explaining where Afganistan one, much less what Al Qaeda or Bin Laden were...

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