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Normally, when I write these things, I find that whatever it is that was on my mind and thus worrying me tends to recede into my background thoughts and leaves my brain free to consider such weighty matters as why it's really good that women wear skimpy clothing during summer. With my last rant, I hoped that I could ease off the paranoia about Dubya's dad starting an oil war by proxy. Not forget about it altogether you understand, I just wanting it to stop blazing white-hot streaks of fear across my cerebellum and allow me to get on with being a lecherous git. Of course, life is never that simple and so here I am again to add something more to what I wrote last time. Whether it's to make me feel better or to make you feel as uneasy about the future as I currently am...well, it's a little from column A and a little from column B. Anyway, regardless of that I think I've got reason to be unsettled. Now let me tell you why....
It's not exactly the world's best-kept secret that America wants to and is going to, and indeed has begun to attack Iraq. I've already talked about their possible reasons for wanting to do so, so I'll not retread that path. What I do want to talk about are the possible consequences of such a war. And you should really brace yourself, because I have one or two funny ideas about that. For the record, I don't mean funny ha-ha either.
Okay, so the current situation is that Iraq has, as it's leader, a murdering scumbag who treats the ethnic minorities of his country (Kurds and Marsh Arabs) as target practice. They are second-class citizens and they are vulnerable to whatever jolly little scheme enters Saddam's head. America wants to depose Saddam and replace him with a leader more to their liking. Iraq is a Muslim country. As I'm sure you know, Osama bin Laden's aim has been to unite the whole Muslim world against America. Thus far, he has failed in this. With the USA attacking Iraq, it is my belief that bin Laden will get his wish. And why do I think that? One word; Israel.
Israel has as it's leader a murdering scumbag who treats the ethnic minorities of his country (Palestinians and Israeli Arabs) as target practice. They are second-class citizens and are vulnerable to the whims of the fat nazi who runs the country. He's finally starting to show his true colours by trying to expel from Israel the families of any suicide bombers. This is illegal under the Israeli constitution, mirrors the actions of the Nazi Party in the 30's in it's methods to get rid of unwanted elements from the country, and is about the closest parallel I've ever seen for the saying "Shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted". Israel is not a Muslim country. America supports the government of Israel.
I hope it's becoming very clear what I'm driving at, but humour me by letting me spell it out. Whilst America invades Iraq in a supposed war on injustice and terror whilst Ariel Sharon continues to follow his dreams of an ethnically pure Israel, and does so by continuing to bomb, shoot, and expel non-Jews from Israel, the Muslim world will NOT be happy. "So what?" you might think. And to be honest, I can see your point. The Muslim world seems to have been in an almost terminal state of unhappiness for as long as I can remember. And who can blame them? Their leaders are almost entirely composed of a small group of hyper-rich dictators. In general, the regime's they live under are oppressive, and Islamic in name only. Who's to say that the Muslim world won't do it's usual act of making a lot of unhappy noises before rolling over like good little lap dogs and keeping the oil flowing?
Maybe they will, and I hope that that is the case should America get it's war (because, for all my posturing, I like a peaceful life as much as the next man). But I can see trouble ahead. Most of the people of the Middle East have rather different opinions about the west in general, and America specifically, than their leaders. During the last Gulf War, Iraq fired missiles at Israel. Not one Middle Eastern country supported Iraq. Yet there were people dancing in the streets in Egypt when they heard this news. This time around, not many Middle Eastern country supports America. So if Iraq was to fire missiles at Israel this time, do you suppose that other Middle Eastern countries would be quite so restrained? Especially with fundamentalist Islam being so widespread at the moment?
Even if we assume that the Moslem governments act with restraint, who is to say that those same governments will stay in power? The likes of Egypt and Saudi Arabia have a big problem with right wing fundamentalist Moslems. Thus far, those governments have tried to keep a lid on the fundamentalists by being ever more oppressive and authoritarian. This can only work for so long because all you are doing is containing the pressure. One of the more popular fundamentalist mantras is that America is out to destroy the Moslem faith, and doesn't care about the injustices meted out to Moslems by ungodly governments who use their supposed faith to Allah as a cover for doing America's (or, if you like, the Great Satan's) dirty work. An attack on Iraq coupled with continued support for the butcher Ariel Sharon by America would give the fundamentalists (in their eyes) cast iron proof that this is indeed the case. And if their governments choose to do nothing about it? Then it is the sacred duty of every Moslem to defend his brothers. Lest you think that I'm being melodramatic, the Shah of Iran found out about the power of fundamentalism when he was sent running from the country he had ran as a dictator after the Islamic Revolution there in the 70's.
An awful lot of Islamic countries have authoritarian governments in power, with a populace who are content with their lot thus far, but whom are vulnerable to the sway of rather more radical Muslims. From Indonesia in the East through to Algeria in Africa and almost every country between those two fall into this category. What I am suggesting is that, by invading Iraq and ignoring the brutality in Israel, America is unwittingly providing the spark for a powder keg that covers half of the planet. Can you imagine the effect of a revolution occurring in most of these countries over the course of a few months? Just think of it; once one revolutions kicks off in one country, another would follow, and then another. Do you have that picture in your head? Okay then....can you then imagine how America would react to revolutions that would see unfriendly governments put into place in all of these (co-incidentally, primarily oil producing) countries?
It's not pretty at all, is it? If, as I suspect, the Islamic world explodes in a frenzy of righteous and fundamentalist ire, then America will be the big loser (well...Israel would probably be the bigger loser as it may well cease to exist within a few years of these events, and I should make clear that I continue to believe that Israel should exist as a homeland for the Jewish people). I say this because the oil will stop flowing, and the American economy will nose dive. America will not take this lying down. They will fight to get back access to the oil that their economy needs. Hence we have America being directly opposed by Islam. Almost exactly the situation that bin Laden wanted and that Dubya said he would avoid in fact. The last time that America tried to stop a domino effect of countries replacing their leaders with governments unfriendly to the US was in Vietnam. Most of the rest of the world was sensible enough to let America behave like a bloody idiot during that conflict, and things are shaping up to be the same here. Or they would be, were it not for the fact that the west's economy is America's economy. If their's goes down the tubes, then so does ours. So will we just dumbly accept that? Nope. Would we side with Islam against America? What do you think?
Perhaps I'm being a little sneaky in making that Vietnam comparison; for what it's worth, I don't actually believe that America and the west would lose the potential conflict I've outlined. Then again, maybe I'm just biased. But even assuming a military victory for the west, what I do think we'd do is set the scene for decades of international terrorism where the targets would be any and everything western. It would be a situation not unlike the nightmarish Perpetual Conflict scenario that Hitler dreamed of when invading Russia (he hoped that the Slavs and Russians would continually wage low key terrorist war against Germany. This would keep Germany on it's toes and ready for battle at all times). If you want me to raise the paranoia stakes further still, then I'd draw your attention to the fact that China would probably stay out of any conflict between Islam and the west, thus leaving it all fresh and dandy whilst the two sides whittle each other down to nothingness. And would anyone care to place bets on what might happen then?
In the midst of all this knuckle whitening and excessive worry, about the only positive thing that I can draw from this is that, if we are facing WWIII in the face, then it'll probably not be in Europe again (after all, we hosted the last 2 so it's only fair for another continent to host this one. World wars should be like world cups; a different host nation for each one...) and it'll probably not be a nuclear conflict. This is probably an inappropriate thought for someone who has just spent a couple of hours writing an essay on why I think the world is teetering on the cusp of an epic shitstorm, but why can't we just be nice to one another? Ah well... here's hoping I'm wrong about all of this.
It's not exactly the world's best-kept secret that America wants to and is going to, and indeed has begun to attack Iraq. I've already talked about their possible reasons for wanting to do so, so I'll not retread that path. What I do want to talk about are the possible consequences of such a war. And you should really brace yourself, because I have one or two funny ideas about that. For the record, I don't mean funny ha-ha either.
Okay, so the current situation is that Iraq has, as it's leader, a murdering scumbag who treats the ethnic minorities of his country (Kurds and Marsh Arabs) as target practice. They are second-class citizens and they are vulnerable to whatever jolly little scheme enters Saddam's head. America wants to depose Saddam and replace him with a leader more to their liking. Iraq is a Muslim country. As I'm sure you know, Osama bin Laden's aim has been to unite the whole Muslim world against America. Thus far, he has failed in this. With the USA attacking Iraq, it is my belief that bin Laden will get his wish. And why do I think that? One word; Israel.
Israel has as it's leader a murdering scumbag who treats the ethnic minorities of his country (Palestinians and Israeli Arabs) as target practice. They are second-class citizens and are vulnerable to the whims of the fat nazi who runs the country. He's finally starting to show his true colours by trying to expel from Israel the families of any suicide bombers. This is illegal under the Israeli constitution, mirrors the actions of the Nazi Party in the 30's in it's methods to get rid of unwanted elements from the country, and is about the closest parallel I've ever seen for the saying "Shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted". Israel is not a Muslim country. America supports the government of Israel.
I hope it's becoming very clear what I'm driving at, but humour me by letting me spell it out. Whilst America invades Iraq in a supposed war on injustice and terror whilst Ariel Sharon continues to follow his dreams of an ethnically pure Israel, and does so by continuing to bomb, shoot, and expel non-Jews from Israel, the Muslim world will NOT be happy. "So what?" you might think. And to be honest, I can see your point. The Muslim world seems to have been in an almost terminal state of unhappiness for as long as I can remember. And who can blame them? Their leaders are almost entirely composed of a small group of hyper-rich dictators. In general, the regime's they live under are oppressive, and Islamic in name only. Who's to say that the Muslim world won't do it's usual act of making a lot of unhappy noises before rolling over like good little lap dogs and keeping the oil flowing?
Maybe they will, and I hope that that is the case should America get it's war (because, for all my posturing, I like a peaceful life as much as the next man). But I can see trouble ahead. Most of the people of the Middle East have rather different opinions about the west in general, and America specifically, than their leaders. During the last Gulf War, Iraq fired missiles at Israel. Not one Middle Eastern country supported Iraq. Yet there were people dancing in the streets in Egypt when they heard this news. This time around, not many Middle Eastern country supports America. So if Iraq was to fire missiles at Israel this time, do you suppose that other Middle Eastern countries would be quite so restrained? Especially with fundamentalist Islam being so widespread at the moment?
Even if we assume that the Moslem governments act with restraint, who is to say that those same governments will stay in power? The likes of Egypt and Saudi Arabia have a big problem with right wing fundamentalist Moslems. Thus far, those governments have tried to keep a lid on the fundamentalists by being ever more oppressive and authoritarian. This can only work for so long because all you are doing is containing the pressure. One of the more popular fundamentalist mantras is that America is out to destroy the Moslem faith, and doesn't care about the injustices meted out to Moslems by ungodly governments who use their supposed faith to Allah as a cover for doing America's (or, if you like, the Great Satan's) dirty work. An attack on Iraq coupled with continued support for the butcher Ariel Sharon by America would give the fundamentalists (in their eyes) cast iron proof that this is indeed the case. And if their governments choose to do nothing about it? Then it is the sacred duty of every Moslem to defend his brothers. Lest you think that I'm being melodramatic, the Shah of Iran found out about the power of fundamentalism when he was sent running from the country he had ran as a dictator after the Islamic Revolution there in the 70's.
An awful lot of Islamic countries have authoritarian governments in power, with a populace who are content with their lot thus far, but whom are vulnerable to the sway of rather more radical Muslims. From Indonesia in the East through to Algeria in Africa and almost every country between those two fall into this category. What I am suggesting is that, by invading Iraq and ignoring the brutality in Israel, America is unwittingly providing the spark for a powder keg that covers half of the planet. Can you imagine the effect of a revolution occurring in most of these countries over the course of a few months? Just think of it; once one revolutions kicks off in one country, another would follow, and then another. Do you have that picture in your head? Okay then....can you then imagine how America would react to revolutions that would see unfriendly governments put into place in all of these (co-incidentally, primarily oil producing) countries?
It's not pretty at all, is it? If, as I suspect, the Islamic world explodes in a frenzy of righteous and fundamentalist ire, then America will be the big loser (well...Israel would probably be the bigger loser as it may well cease to exist within a few years of these events, and I should make clear that I continue to believe that Israel should exist as a homeland for the Jewish people). I say this because the oil will stop flowing, and the American economy will nose dive. America will not take this lying down. They will fight to get back access to the oil that their economy needs. Hence we have America being directly opposed by Islam. Almost exactly the situation that bin Laden wanted and that Dubya said he would avoid in fact. The last time that America tried to stop a domino effect of countries replacing their leaders with governments unfriendly to the US was in Vietnam. Most of the rest of the world was sensible enough to let America behave like a bloody idiot during that conflict, and things are shaping up to be the same here. Or they would be, were it not for the fact that the west's economy is America's economy. If their's goes down the tubes, then so does ours. So will we just dumbly accept that? Nope. Would we side with Islam against America? What do you think?
Perhaps I'm being a little sneaky in making that Vietnam comparison; for what it's worth, I don't actually believe that America and the west would lose the potential conflict I've outlined. Then again, maybe I'm just biased. But even assuming a military victory for the west, what I do think we'd do is set the scene for decades of international terrorism where the targets would be any and everything western. It would be a situation not unlike the nightmarish Perpetual Conflict scenario that Hitler dreamed of when invading Russia (he hoped that the Slavs and Russians would continually wage low key terrorist war against Germany. This would keep Germany on it's toes and ready for battle at all times). If you want me to raise the paranoia stakes further still, then I'd draw your attention to the fact that China would probably stay out of any conflict between Islam and the west, thus leaving it all fresh and dandy whilst the two sides whittle each other down to nothingness. And would anyone care to place bets on what might happen then?
In the midst of all this knuckle whitening and excessive worry, about the only positive thing that I can draw from this is that, if we are facing WWIII in the face, then it'll probably not be in Europe again (after all, we hosted the last 2 so it's only fair for another continent to host this one. World wars should be like world cups; a different host nation for each one...) and it'll probably not be a nuclear conflict. This is probably an inappropriate thought for someone who has just spent a couple of hours writing an essay on why I think the world is teetering on the cusp of an epic shitstorm, but why can't we just be nice to one another? Ah well... here's hoping I'm wrong about all of this.
Good post. I doubt the scenario of a massive Islamic uprising would ever occur, in the same way the UK would never a Christian crusade these days. Governments are governments, and the Islamic belt of countries across Asia are far too interested in self-preservation to wage a campaign against the west which would result in certain defeat.
I just hope Dubya doesn't immediately try and maneuver the coalition into a position to attack Iran or North Korea when the dust has settled in Iraq. Another conflict, and he will seriously go down in history as the most warmongering president ever in the United States. If he did try, one might hope that Tony Blair would be a little smarter and not nail his colours so prominently to the US mast this time.
I just hope Dubya doesn't immediately try and maneuver the coalition into a position to attack Iran or North Korea when the dust has settled in Iraq. Another conflict, and he will seriously go down in history as the most warmongering president ever in the United States. If he did try, one might hope that Tony Blair would be a little smarter and not nail his colours so prominently to the US mast this time.
The point there would surely be that America is no longer like that, and are trying to bring about similar change in Iraq.
Of course, whether they are right to do so is another matter.
Of course, whether they are right to do so is another matter.
Bush condemns Hussein for possessing chemical weapons and the possibility he may use them in conflict, fine, I get that.
So what about Agent Orange in Vietnam?
Bush deplores Hussein for oppressing his own people and for keeping them under iron rule, fine, I get that.
So what about the Civil rights wars in the late 1960's, early 1970s?
Blacks not being allowed to eat with white folk, travel on the same buses, hold down jobs etc.
I'm not saying Hussein is a nice man and should be left alone.
I'm just saying that the reasons offered for this "war" also mean we could quite happily attack America.
We dont even need UN backing or the support of this country anymore.
So what about Agent Orange in Vietnam?
Bush deplores Hussein for oppressing his own people and for keeping them under iron rule, fine, I get that.
So what about the Civil rights wars in the late 1960's, early 1970s?
Blacks not being allowed to eat with white folk, travel on the same buses, hold down jobs etc.
I'm not saying Hussein is a nice man and should be left alone.
I'm just saying that the reasons offered for this "war" also mean we could quite happily attack America.
We dont even need UN backing or the support of this country anymore.
Normally, when I write these things, I find that whatever it is that was on my mind and thus worrying me tends to recede into my background thoughts and leaves my brain free to consider such weighty matters as why it's really good that women wear skimpy clothing during summer. With my last rant, I hoped that I could ease off the paranoia about Dubya's dad starting an oil war by proxy. Not forget about it altogether you understand, I just wanting it to stop blazing white-hot streaks of fear across my cerebellum and allow me to get on with being a lecherous git. Of course, life is never that simple and so here I am again to add something more to what I wrote last time. Whether it's to make me feel better or to make you feel as uneasy about the future as I currently am...well, it's a little from column A and a little from column B. Anyway, regardless of that I think I've got reason to be unsettled. Now let me tell you why....
It's not exactly the world's best-kept secret that America wants to and is going to, and indeed has begun to attack Iraq. I've already talked about their possible reasons for wanting to do so, so I'll not retread that path. What I do want to talk about are the possible consequences of such a war. And you should really brace yourself, because I have one or two funny ideas about that. For the record, I don't mean funny ha-ha either.
Okay, so the current situation is that Iraq has, as it's leader, a murdering scumbag who treats the ethnic minorities of his country (Kurds and Marsh Arabs) as target practice. They are second-class citizens and they are vulnerable to whatever jolly little scheme enters Saddam's head. America wants to depose Saddam and replace him with a leader more to their liking. Iraq is a Muslim country. As I'm sure you know, Osama bin Laden's aim has been to unite the whole Muslim world against America. Thus far, he has failed in this. With the USA attacking Iraq, it is my belief that bin Laden will get his wish. And why do I think that? One word; Israel.
Israel has as it's leader a murdering scumbag who treats the ethnic minorities of his country (Palestinians and Israeli Arabs) as target practice. They are second-class citizens and are vulnerable to the whims of the fat nazi who runs the country. He's finally starting to show his true colours by trying to expel from Israel the families of any suicide bombers. This is illegal under the Israeli constitution, mirrors the actions of the Nazi Party in the 30's in it's methods to get rid of unwanted elements from the country, and is about the closest parallel I've ever seen for the saying "Shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted". Israel is not a Muslim country. America supports the government of Israel.
I hope it's becoming very clear what I'm driving at, but humour me by letting me spell it out. Whilst America invades Iraq in a supposed war on injustice and terror whilst Ariel Sharon continues to follow his dreams of an ethnically pure Israel, and does so by continuing to bomb, shoot, and expel non-Jews from Israel, the Muslim world will NOT be happy. "So what?" you might think. And to be honest, I can see your point. The Muslim world seems to have been in an almost terminal state of unhappiness for as long as I can remember. And who can blame them? Their leaders are almost entirely composed of a small group of hyper-rich dictators. In general, the regime's they live under are oppressive, and Islamic in name only. Who's to say that the Muslim world won't do it's usual act of making a lot of unhappy noises before rolling over like good little lap dogs and keeping the oil flowing?
Maybe they will, and I hope that that is the case should America get it's war (because, for all my posturing, I like a peaceful life as much as the next man). But I can see trouble ahead. Most of the people of the Middle East have rather different opinions about the west in general, and America specifically, than their leaders. During the last Gulf War, Iraq fired missiles at Israel. Not one Middle Eastern country supported Iraq. Yet there were people dancing in the streets in Egypt when they heard this news. This time around, not many Middle Eastern country supports America. So if Iraq was to fire missiles at Israel this time, do you suppose that other Middle Eastern countries would be quite so restrained? Especially with fundamentalist Islam being so widespread at the moment?
Even if we assume that the Moslem governments act with restraint, who is to say that those same governments will stay in power? The likes of Egypt and Saudi Arabia have a big problem with right wing fundamentalist Moslems. Thus far, those governments have tried to keep a lid on the fundamentalists by being ever more oppressive and authoritarian. This can only work for so long because all you are doing is containing the pressure. One of the more popular fundamentalist mantras is that America is out to destroy the Moslem faith, and doesn't care about the injustices meted out to Moslems by ungodly governments who use their supposed faith to Allah as a cover for doing America's (or, if you like, the Great Satan's) dirty work. An attack on Iraq coupled with continued support for the butcher Ariel Sharon by America would give the fundamentalists (in their eyes) cast iron proof that this is indeed the case. And if their governments choose to do nothing about it? Then it is the sacred duty of every Moslem to defend his brothers. Lest you think that I'm being melodramatic, the Shah of Iran found out about the power of fundamentalism when he was sent running from the country he had ran as a dictator after the Islamic Revolution there in the 70's.
An awful lot of Islamic countries have authoritarian governments in power, with a populace who are content with their lot thus far, but whom are vulnerable to the sway of rather more radical Muslims. From Indonesia in the East through to Algeria in Africa and almost every country between those two fall into this category. What I am suggesting is that, by invading Iraq and ignoring the brutality in Israel, America is unwittingly providing the spark for a powder keg that covers half of the planet. Can you imagine the effect of a revolution occurring in most of these countries over the course of a few months? Just think of it; once one revolutions kicks off in one country, another would follow, and then another. Do you have that picture in your head? Okay then....can you then imagine how America would react to revolutions that would see unfriendly governments put into place in all of these (co-incidentally, primarily oil producing) countries?
It's not pretty at all, is it? If, as I suspect, the Islamic world explodes in a frenzy of righteous and fundamentalist ire, then America will be the big loser (well...Israel would probably be the bigger loser as it may well cease to exist within a few years of these events, and I should make clear that I continue to believe that Israel should exist as a homeland for the Jewish people). I say this because the oil will stop flowing, and the American economy will nose dive. America will not take this lying down. They will fight to get back access to the oil that their economy needs. Hence we have America being directly opposed by Islam. Almost exactly the situation that bin Laden wanted and that Dubya said he would avoid in fact. The last time that America tried to stop a domino effect of countries replacing their leaders with governments unfriendly to the US was in Vietnam. Most of the rest of the world was sensible enough to let America behave like a bloody idiot during that conflict, and things are shaping up to be the same here. Or they would be, were it not for the fact that the west's economy is America's economy. If their's goes down the tubes, then so does ours. So will we just dumbly accept that? Nope. Would we side with Islam against America? What do you think?
Perhaps I'm being a little sneaky in making that Vietnam comparison; for what it's worth, I don't actually believe that America and the west would lose the potential conflict I've outlined. Then again, maybe I'm just biased. But even assuming a military victory for the west, what I do think we'd do is set the scene for decades of international terrorism where the targets would be any and everything western. It would be a situation not unlike the nightmarish Perpetual Conflict scenario that Hitler dreamed of when invading Russia (he hoped that the Slavs and Russians would continually wage low key terrorist war against Germany. This would keep Germany on it's toes and ready for battle at all times). If you want me to raise the paranoia stakes further still, then I'd draw your attention to the fact that China would probably stay out of any conflict between Islam and the west, thus leaving it all fresh and dandy whilst the two sides whittle each other down to nothingness. And would anyone care to place bets on what might happen then?
In the midst of all this knuckle whitening and excessive worry, about the only positive thing that I can draw from this is that, if we are facing WWIII in the face, then it'll probably not be in Europe again (after all, we hosted the last 2 so it's only fair for another continent to host this one. World wars should be like world cups; a different host nation for each one...) and it'll probably not be a nuclear conflict. This is probably an inappropriate thought for someone who has just spent a couple of hours writing an essay on why I think the world is teetering on the cusp of an epic shitstorm, but why can't we just be nice to one another? Ah well... here's hoping I'm wrong about all of this.
It's not exactly the world's best-kept secret that America wants to and is going to, and indeed has begun to attack Iraq. I've already talked about their possible reasons for wanting to do so, so I'll not retread that path. What I do want to talk about are the possible consequences of such a war. And you should really brace yourself, because I have one or two funny ideas about that. For the record, I don't mean funny ha-ha either.
Okay, so the current situation is that Iraq has, as it's leader, a murdering scumbag who treats the ethnic minorities of his country (Kurds and Marsh Arabs) as target practice. They are second-class citizens and they are vulnerable to whatever jolly little scheme enters Saddam's head. America wants to depose Saddam and replace him with a leader more to their liking. Iraq is a Muslim country. As I'm sure you know, Osama bin Laden's aim has been to unite the whole Muslim world against America. Thus far, he has failed in this. With the USA attacking Iraq, it is my belief that bin Laden will get his wish. And why do I think that? One word; Israel.
Israel has as it's leader a murdering scumbag who treats the ethnic minorities of his country (Palestinians and Israeli Arabs) as target practice. They are second-class citizens and are vulnerable to the whims of the fat nazi who runs the country. He's finally starting to show his true colours by trying to expel from Israel the families of any suicide bombers. This is illegal under the Israeli constitution, mirrors the actions of the Nazi Party in the 30's in it's methods to get rid of unwanted elements from the country, and is about the closest parallel I've ever seen for the saying "Shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted". Israel is not a Muslim country. America supports the government of Israel.
I hope it's becoming very clear what I'm driving at, but humour me by letting me spell it out. Whilst America invades Iraq in a supposed war on injustice and terror whilst Ariel Sharon continues to follow his dreams of an ethnically pure Israel, and does so by continuing to bomb, shoot, and expel non-Jews from Israel, the Muslim world will NOT be happy. "So what?" you might think. And to be honest, I can see your point. The Muslim world seems to have been in an almost terminal state of unhappiness for as long as I can remember. And who can blame them? Their leaders are almost entirely composed of a small group of hyper-rich dictators. In general, the regime's they live under are oppressive, and Islamic in name only. Who's to say that the Muslim world won't do it's usual act of making a lot of unhappy noises before rolling over like good little lap dogs and keeping the oil flowing?
Maybe they will, and I hope that that is the case should America get it's war (because, for all my posturing, I like a peaceful life as much as the next man). But I can see trouble ahead. Most of the people of the Middle East have rather different opinions about the west in general, and America specifically, than their leaders. During the last Gulf War, Iraq fired missiles at Israel. Not one Middle Eastern country supported Iraq. Yet there were people dancing in the streets in Egypt when they heard this news. This time around, not many Middle Eastern country supports America. So if Iraq was to fire missiles at Israel this time, do you suppose that other Middle Eastern countries would be quite so restrained? Especially with fundamentalist Islam being so widespread at the moment?
Even if we assume that the Moslem governments act with restraint, who is to say that those same governments will stay in power? The likes of Egypt and Saudi Arabia have a big problem with right wing fundamentalist Moslems. Thus far, those governments have tried to keep a lid on the fundamentalists by being ever more oppressive and authoritarian. This can only work for so long because all you are doing is containing the pressure. One of the more popular fundamentalist mantras is that America is out to destroy the Moslem faith, and doesn't care about the injustices meted out to Moslems by ungodly governments who use their supposed faith to Allah as a cover for doing America's (or, if you like, the Great Satan's) dirty work. An attack on Iraq coupled with continued support for the butcher Ariel Sharon by America would give the fundamentalists (in their eyes) cast iron proof that this is indeed the case. And if their governments choose to do nothing about it? Then it is the sacred duty of every Moslem to defend his brothers. Lest you think that I'm being melodramatic, the Shah of Iran found out about the power of fundamentalism when he was sent running from the country he had ran as a dictator after the Islamic Revolution there in the 70's.
An awful lot of Islamic countries have authoritarian governments in power, with a populace who are content with their lot thus far, but whom are vulnerable to the sway of rather more radical Muslims. From Indonesia in the East through to Algeria in Africa and almost every country between those two fall into this category. What I am suggesting is that, by invading Iraq and ignoring the brutality in Israel, America is unwittingly providing the spark for a powder keg that covers half of the planet. Can you imagine the effect of a revolution occurring in most of these countries over the course of a few months? Just think of it; once one revolutions kicks off in one country, another would follow, and then another. Do you have that picture in your head? Okay then....can you then imagine how America would react to revolutions that would see unfriendly governments put into place in all of these (co-incidentally, primarily oil producing) countries?
It's not pretty at all, is it? If, as I suspect, the Islamic world explodes in a frenzy of righteous and fundamentalist ire, then America will be the big loser (well...Israel would probably be the bigger loser as it may well cease to exist within a few years of these events, and I should make clear that I continue to believe that Israel should exist as a homeland for the Jewish people). I say this because the oil will stop flowing, and the American economy will nose dive. America will not take this lying down. They will fight to get back access to the oil that their economy needs. Hence we have America being directly opposed by Islam. Almost exactly the situation that bin Laden wanted and that Dubya said he would avoid in fact. The last time that America tried to stop a domino effect of countries replacing their leaders with governments unfriendly to the US was in Vietnam. Most of the rest of the world was sensible enough to let America behave like a bloody idiot during that conflict, and things are shaping up to be the same here. Or they would be, were it not for the fact that the west's economy is America's economy. If their's goes down the tubes, then so does ours. So will we just dumbly accept that? Nope. Would we side with Islam against America? What do you think?
Perhaps I'm being a little sneaky in making that Vietnam comparison; for what it's worth, I don't actually believe that America and the west would lose the potential conflict I've outlined. Then again, maybe I'm just biased. But even assuming a military victory for the west, what I do think we'd do is set the scene for decades of international terrorism where the targets would be any and everything western. It would be a situation not unlike the nightmarish Perpetual Conflict scenario that Hitler dreamed of when invading Russia (he hoped that the Slavs and Russians would continually wage low key terrorist war against Germany. This would keep Germany on it's toes and ready for battle at all times). If you want me to raise the paranoia stakes further still, then I'd draw your attention to the fact that China would probably stay out of any conflict between Islam and the west, thus leaving it all fresh and dandy whilst the two sides whittle each other down to nothingness. And would anyone care to place bets on what might happen then?
In the midst of all this knuckle whitening and excessive worry, about the only positive thing that I can draw from this is that, if we are facing WWIII in the face, then it'll probably not be in Europe again (after all, we hosted the last 2 so it's only fair for another continent to host this one. World wars should be like world cups; a different host nation for each one...) and it'll probably not be a nuclear conflict. This is probably an inappropriate thought for someone who has just spent a couple of hours writing an essay on why I think the world is teetering on the cusp of an epic shitstorm, but why can't we just be nice to one another? Ah well... here's hoping I'm wrong about all of this.