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I would say, without Microsof making a loss, about £350, if not more. Games will be expensive too.
I am going for NGC, cus its cheap, and will have that great looking Star Wars game, Zelda, METROID!!, and others (Internet Mario Kart! I think I'll start a petition.)
Also the founder of the Microsoft is Bill Gates and he has never released a product to the public that has failed.Not to forget the 155 developers one year before launch, not even the PS2 had many!