Viewing Thread:
"The future of gaming."

So. We are now approaching the end of 2003. The Nintendo Gamecube and the Microsoft Xbox are now both around 2 years old. The Sony Playstation 2 is 3 years old.

The thing that stands out for me in the above paragraph is the names. Sony and Microsoft. 10 years ago it would have been Sega and Atari. But not now. That I believe is proof of just how volatile the console market is.

So where do you see things going over the next few years? The Playstation 3 and Xbox Next as it has been dubbed are both in development and are apparently due for a late 2005 release. The Gamecube 2 is, known interally at Nintendo as N5, expected in 2006 although Nintendo have made it known that they want to be first to the market with the next generation console.

The PS3 is to be more than just a games console though. Using a new ultra powerful processor known as the Cell, it will become a home entertainment center that can play games, music, video and feature online play.

The Xbox Next will likely do all those things too, because the current Xbox already does them.

The Gamecube 2 however is more of a mystery. Nintendo when making the Gamecube pointed out that they were a video games company, and as such they just stuck to games. Will we see any more features next time around?

Of course it isn't features that make a console. Or even great games, otherwise the Dreamcast would have been the most successful console ever. It is all about the advertising, the brand, the hype.

Sony are the masters of branding. Virtually everyone has heard of the Playstation and associates it with video games. Not so with names like Xbox, Nintendo, Sega or EA.

So the PS3 has a minor advantage even before release. Microsoft of course are well known as being able to enter a market and within a few years completely dominate it. But games might be a slightly tougher challenge than web browsers. Nintendo are not idiots however. Sure the Gamecube has had very little advertising, and very little in the way of brand awareness. Nintendo are just simply arrogant and stubborn. If they can swallow their pride and accept that nowadays mature titles and casual gamers are what brings success, rather than bright and cute masterpieces, then they can make a real go of the Gamecube 2. They just have to redirect the old magic.

To date, the PS2 has sold approximately 55 million units in comparison to 10 million Gamecubes and 10 million Xboxes. However I don't think that Sony will have as much of the market share next time round. They still will probably have the largest share, but if the Xbox Next and Gamecube 2 are released close to the PS3, then the big head start built up by Sony over the 18 months in which the PS2 faced no real competition, will not be present.

Games are another factor that affect a consoles performance obviously. Nintendo have some much loved franchises like Mario and Zelda, that are almost guaranteed sales. However an accusation levelled at them is that they look like they are for kids. And kids especially want to play the mature titles. Sony will no doubt have a Gran Turismo and Final Fantasy game or two. MS will probably have another Halo.

The only worry regards those franchises is that eventually people wisen up and eventually want something new. So are we going to see anything truly revolutionary?

Well it depends. It depends on how well harnessed todays hardware in harnessed over the next 2 years. Xbox Live has introduced online gaming for consoles to the masses. But it has yet to become huge. But as of now, there is no MMORPG to match a PC equivalent like Everquest. No strategy games either. Perhaps not a genre that would attract much in the way of sales, but then as it is so neglected who knows.

What I would like to see is some new franchises introduced. I remember when Crash Bandicoot came out. Something new. When Tomb Raider first appeared. But now these are both as old and institutional as Sonic and Mario. Time to freshen up guys. I like stealth, but I'm bored of Metal Gear Solid.

Recently Sony released the Eyetoy. Now that was innovative. But limited. I would like to see the concept extended further. The technology to put yourself in a video game in a full 3d model does now exist. I would like to see it used. That way you can all see me as I kick your ass in Unreal or whatever online.

Another thing I would like to see more of is wireless. The amount of clutter I have because of having so many consoles is ridiculous. How about all wireless controllers and wireless online connectivity (i.e. WiFi).

This next generation of consoles could well be the most important yet. The Sony Cell processor is allegedly as much as a 1000 times more powerful than the current emotion engine (PS2 chip). It is supposedly going to be capable of photo realistic graphics in real time. Now that would be impressive. If that is the case then both MS and Nintendo are going to have to make consoles with the same sort of power. But if it is achieved, where is there to go after that?

Well in 5 years time I'll come back and answer that question hopefully.

Thanks for reading some of the ramblings from my demented mind.
Biggles.

You wish topics like this were posted on a regular basis nowadays.

The reason they won't try it is because MS won't have anything less than total control, which would require a takeover. And Nintendo are not going to agree to that, and I doubt that unless the offer was very good, would Nintendo's shareholders.

An MS and Sega venture of some sort would be wonderful however.

You are right, MS and Nintendo never really had a chance in this generation, they were 2 years late to the market. Had the PS2 had some competition then maybe it would not have done so well. Now mostly it is just momentum that keeps it selling.

Notorious Biggles wrote:
>
> But then people are stupid.

Amen.

It's a good point. PS2 came out March 2000 in Japan and end of the year elsewhere.

However, the Xbox and GC could have done better so far if they had both been more heavily marketed. The GC in particular. Whilst it has sold close to the same amount of Xboxes, most of those sales are in Japan, few in North America and Europe.

But now is the time to buy either. The PS2 is just getting past it.

As things stand, the best game in every genre apart from football and strategy is currently on the Xbox. Best FPS, Halo. Best racer, PGR. Best RPG, Star Wars KOTOR. Best snowboarder, Amped. I could go on.

What really amazes me though is how the PS2 still has strong sales. You would have thought that by now people would have realised that it's better to get an Xbox or GC and that they have the best games.

But then people are stupid.

Looking at the sales figures in the original post and factoring in how long each console has been in the market the Xbox and Gamecube have done pretty well for themselves.

How long has the PS2 been out now?

I expect to see more GC and Xbox consoles sold as the PS2 starts to look more and more dated. Afterall can PS2 owners REALLY wait until 2005 for a new Sony console?

Sony couldn't do quality over quantity. The money isn't the same.

I wouldn't bank on the PS3 being the most powerful either, there is still a good few years until the hardware is finalised.

But I think you are right, MS will grab more of Sony's territory. Nintendo could do well if they pull their heads out of their ass, if not they'll mess up again.

I wrote this in the Nintendo Forum and I thought of you.

*Pats thread*
------------------------------------ -------------------------------------

I think next time round Microsoft will steal a large amount of potential PS3 owners due to XBOX 2 coming out earlier and a large marketing campaign wher Microsoft steal the 'cool factor'.

Nintendo will have a re-branding and the GC2 (or what ever it's called) will sell well.

If both Microsoft and Nintendo's consoles come out earlier than the PS3 AND they have good marketing campaigns then I think we could see a very substantial piece of Sony territory being carved up between Microsoft and Nintendo.

Currently it appears Sony are banking on having the most powerful console selling the units. This might slowly work but if people already own Xbox 2 and GC2 machines Sony might become a victim of what they started: Heavyweight marketing in the games industry.

However the current Microsoft and Nintendo machines have a higher average of quality games than the PS2 so if the PS3 fills up with crap like it's predecessors this may put off potential buyers even further.

In a bizzarre twist of fate the PS3 might become the hardcore gamer's console of choice if it comes to late to the party and is forced to take a 'quality over quantity' stance whilst being the most powerful of the three.

It could work. But you would have to have a subscription to it because no publisher would support a game indefinitely.

Thank you.

I agree, games are bigger and now take longer to complete than ever. But I don't know that I really like it. Sure, I don't really want Star Wars KOTOR to end, but with most games I like reaching a point where I can sit back and have that satisfied feeling from having beaten a game. I get that less often now because I play less different games.

A slightly quieter and lower pitched sound than clicking your fingers.

Yes, as the tree falling down would still create vibrations in the air, or soundwaves.

Now if you keep up the spamming, I report you. Others will too.